elzeyfirekuut1795.blogspot.com
Q Are we seeing the worst in termw ofhome sales, or do you think it will get worse? Does the industry have a forecast of when it mighyt be better ? A Houstobn is now slipping into the grips of the nationak recession and we will to some degred be subject to how the national economy so probably a bit worse. The one consensus that I consistentlty hear and read is that as the recoveryy begins andtakes hold, Houston will be one of the very firsft cities to recover. Q Communities that thought they would be ina sell-out situation at this point are now seeing themselved with lots still for sale.
On the there are developers who are creating new Given the lowerhousing demand, should developers or builders wait for things to even out, or would that present a problemm ? A This reminds me of the proverbial “Is the glass half empty or half New-home supply and the vacant developed lot supply, whilr not in perfect are certainly in prett y good shape and with any uptic in sales we could quicklg see a shortage in both. This becomes even more acute as you the inventory intothe “A” communities, communities, etc.
There will be a numbetr of lots and communitied that will probably take a long timein “cominfg back” as they were developed in locations and in a manner that was directexd at the “subprime” buyer and, as we all know, the buyers are still out there but the financing is not. Market shared for “A” communities will continue to grow as buyerzs seek the safetyof master-planned communities. Q Because the only placesw to get large parcels of land are farther out from the city has urban sprawl become a problem forHoustomn ? A What is the center of the city Is it downtown or the Galleria/West Loop?? Both have 30 million-plus squar feet of office space.
The pointf being that Houston now has multiple work centers that have allowec people to livefarther out, but not have to commute longee and longer distances. These work centers include TexasMedical Center, Greenway Plaza, Galleria/Wes Loop, Westchase, Energy Corridor, Sugar Land, Clear Lake City, Greenspoint and The Woodlands. To meet our housinh demand in the coming our region will not only require continuex development inthe suburbs, but a vibrant redevelopment effort withimn the central city as well. Q What do you thinkm the future holds for the home industry over the next fiveyeares ?
A The short answer is a moderate but steady recovery that grows to a stabilized annual demand of approximately 1.5 million new homes per year. The U.S. is the thirr most populous nation on the only surpassed by China and The U.S. is currently growing at slightlg less than1 percent, but in nominal terms by more than 3 million new people per year (birtha over deaths plus Houston alone grows by approximately 120,000 new people per year. These folksw have to live somewhere, and more than 100,000 units of the currenft housing stock in this country need to be replacex on an annual basis due tofunctional obsolescence.
Q Sincs Houston isn’t doing as bad as otherd areas, what should builders and developerss be focusing onhere ? A I hope that we use this “downn time” as an opportunity to reflect on the past five What did we do right What did we do wrong?? What can we do better? The development and buildingh community should focus on building sustainable communitiesw and homes — communities and homes that will grow better over time so they don’rt become part of that housinb stock that needs to be replaced on an annual basis.
While the sales in our communitiews are continuing at a very robust Iknow that, at Newland, we are continually lookingy back to evaluate what worked and what didn’t. We are alwayse looking to the home to try and understand whatthey want, need and most what they are willing to pay for. Thano someone that tastes do change; otherwise we coulcd all still bewearingb double-knit leisure suits or beehive